AECOM (ACM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

AECOM is well positioned for durable fundamental strength because its diversified global advisory, design, and engineering platform serves essential end markets like water, transportation, and environment while maintaining a balanced public/private client mix. Record backlog of $27.8 billion, up 13.1% year over year, and strong book-to-burn of 1.6x support visibility, while Adjusted EBITDA rose from $657 million in F2019 to $1.203 billion in F2025 and margin expanded to 15.9%, underscoring meaningful execution gains. Despite near-term Construction Management headwinds, management expects 5-8% organic NSR growth, further margin expansion, and continued capital returns through share repurchases and a growing dividend.

AECOM is facing a sharp deterioration in near-term fundamental quality because legacy construction management projects have created a $337 million pre-tax charge, roughly $1.2 billion of cash outflow through F1H27, and an expected ~$500 million FCF drag in 1H’27. The setback has weakened balance-sheet flexibility, with net leverage rising to 1.5x from about 1.2x and likely peaking near 2x during H1/F27 while share repurchases are effectively paused. Although fiscal 2025 sales reached $16.1 billion and core international demand remains solid, the company’s reduced FY2026 outlook for adjusted EPS of $3.95–$4.15 and NSR of $7.30–$7.35 billion shows that execution risk, margin pressure, and claim resolution uncertainty are overshadowing the underlying franchise.