Autodesk (ADSK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Autodesk is projected to achieve total revenue of $1,631 million for Q4, marking an 11% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by its Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) segment, which is expected to rise by 12%. Billings saw a significant increase of 23%, reflecting a successful transition to annual billing for multiyear contracts and underscoring the company's financial discipline with a non-GAAP operating margin of 37%. Additionally, Autodesk anticipates steady growth in the range of 8-9% for FY26, supported by broad-based revenue increases across various product lines and regions, despite facing foreign exchange headwinds.

The analyst indicates a negative outlook for Autodesk's stock due to several fundamental challenges. Key factors include the adverse impact of high office vacancy rates on commercial design activity, a slow recovery in the construction industry, and difficulties in transitioning to new transaction models and billing practices. Additionally, the company faces pressures from restructuring charges that lower its GAAP EPS guidance and an overvaluation relative to its peers on an EV/FCF basis, which highlight concerns about its long-term financial health.