AIG (AIG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American International Gr is attractive because its core fixed income portfolio should continue to benefit from higher new money yields, while private equity results are expected to normalize, supporting steadier investment income. The company also reaffirmed spring 2025 investor day goals, including 20%+ operating EPS CAGR from the $4.95 2024 baseline, a GI expense ratio below 30% by end of 2027, and $3B of capital generation from insurance subsidiaries through 2027. Underwriting momentum is equally compelling, with General Insurance underwriting income up 10% to $686 million, North America Commercial NPW up 9% to $3,125 million, and combined ratio improvement across both commercial and personal lines.

American International Gr is facing a fundamentally cautious outlook because its underwriting and actuarial results remain vulnerable to claim volatility, catastrophe losses, and mix-driven margin pressure, with International Commercial’s combined ratio deteriorating 540 bps to 91.3% from Middle East conflict-related losses. The company’s own 2027 targets already appear embedded in estimates, limiting upside as commercial loss ratios are expected to worsen modestly while Corebridge-related equity exposure and investment risk can amplify bottom-line volatility. Although buybacks of $2.2B in 2026 and $1.0B in 2027 support capital return, weaker growth expectations, higher DAC amortization, and a more competitive, slower macro backdrop leave limited room for sustained fundamental re-rating.