Aldeyra Therapeutics (ALDX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aldeyra Therapeutics is supported by a differentiated RASP-scavenging platform and a first-mover position in immune-mediated disease, giving it potential long-duration optionality across ocular, autoimmune, retinal, and oncology programs. Its lead asset reproxalap has produced supportive data across nine adequate and well-controlled trials, with five meeting all multiplicity-controlled primary endpoints, while dry eye disease and allergic conjunctivitis address large U.S. patient pools of more than 15M and more than 30M diagnosed patients, respectively. The negative regulatory history remains a risk, but repeated FDA engagement, positive chamber-trial results, and the planned Formal Dispute Resolution Request suggest a credible path to eventual approval and meaningful commercial upside.

Aldeyra Therapeutics is facing a deteriorating fundamental outlook because Reproxalap has now been hit with multiple regulatory setbacks, including a CRL on April 3, 2025, a PDUFA extension on December 15, 2025, and another CRL citing lack of substantial evidence of efficacy and inconsistent study results. The company’s dependence on a single late-stage dry eye asset heightens execution risk, while the stated risks around capital resources and continued development underscore financing strain if commercialization remains delayed or blocked. With valuation tied to optimistic 2032 EPS of $0.26 and a 2026-2032 DCF, the thesis appears highly contingent on events that have so far repeatedly failed to materialize.