Amgen (AMGN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Amgen's positive outlook is driven by significant growth in its established product portfolio, particularly with the strong performance of Tavneos, which saw a remarkable 81% increase in sales, reaching $76 million in 4Q24, and a total of approximately $716 million for the year 2022 following its label expansion. The acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics has enhanced Amgen's capabilities in addressing rare diseases with valuable assets like Tepezza, while the company's robust pipeline of innovative therapies, including emerging treatments such as Imdelltra and Olpasiran, promises long-term revenue growth. Further solidifying its financial health, Amgen's strong cash position supports ongoing investments in research and development, signaling a sustainable trajectory for future growth across its diverse therapeutic areas including oncology, immunology, and rare diseases.

Amgen faces significant challenges, primarily stemming from increased competition within its core business, which could lead to market share erosion and intensified pricing pressures. The company’s management anticipates potential mid-single-digit price declines for its cholesterol-lowering drug, Repatha, highlighting concerns about slower uptake of new products and regulatory hurdles for its late-stage pipeline and biosimilars. Additionally, a downside scenario predicts further declines in valuation, driven by rapid market entry of biosimilars and ongoing slower adoption of recently launched therapies.