ARLP Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alliance Resource Partners LP is positioned favorably in light of anticipated increases in electricity demand and its ongoing diversification efforts, particularly outside of coal. The company's Illinois Basin operations demonstrated robust sales exceeding expectations, while management's strategic focus on cost control and maintaining coal margins near historical levels amid projected pricing declines bolsters its outlook. Additionally, the planned contracts for approximately 21.7 million tons from 2025 to 2030 further establish a solid foundation for future revenue stability and growth opportunities in the Oil & Gas Royalty segment.

Alliance Resource Partners LP has revised its full-year adjusted EBITDA estimates downwards, with projections dropping from $755 million to $710 million and from $820 million to $775 million due to disappointing performance in the Appalachia segment. The company reported a significant miss in its 3Q adjusted EBITDA, achieving only $170 million against expectations of $198 million, while the 4Q results are also expected to underperform with adjusted EBITDA forecasted at $124 million compared to a consensus of $179 million. Additionally, coal sales guidance for full-year 2025 has been adjusted to 32.25 million to 34.25 million tons, reflecting a decline attributable to ongoing challenging mining conditions and reduced production capability.