BancFirst (BANF) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BancFirst is supported by positive third-quarter operating trends, with year-to-date noninterest-bearing deposits up about $170M, or roughly 4.4% versus 12/31/25, while loan balances remained flat-to-modestly higher and net interest margin stayed fairly stable. Its 1Q26 results also showed earnings resilience, with EPS of $1.85, 3bp NIM expansion, 2.4% linked-quarter loan growth, 7.3% end-of-period deposit growth, and a stronger efficiency ratio of 54.1%. The outlook is further helped by steady low-single-digit loan growth expectations, solid fee income, lower provision costs, and potential upside if the Fed pivots to a rate hike later this year.

BancFirst is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because deterioration in asset quality and exposure to the energy sector could restrain regional growth, weaken loan demand, and pressure the mix toward less profitable assets. While net interest income of $127.7M slightly beat estimates and average earning assets rose 5.0% annualized to $13.85B, the quality of that growth is less compelling as loan yields fell 7bp to 6.85% and total earning asset yields declined 9bp to 5.57%. Even with NIM expanding 3bp to 3.74% and deposit costs easing, the combination of softer asset yields and higher credit risk supports a negative outlook.