BFST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Business First Bancshares is supported by strong net interest income momentum, with LQA NII up 14% to $77.8 million and core NIM expanding 8 bps to 3.68% as deposit costs fell and loan yields improved. Credit quality also strengthened meaningfully, as NPAs declined to $105.2 million, or 1.57% of loans plus REO, while management still expects additional resolutions and a reduced NPL run rate by year-end. The outlook is further reinforced by capital discipline and growth optionality, including the $85 million sub debt issuance, improved CET1 of 10.4%, share repurchases, and Progressive-related cost savings that should support profitability.

Business First Bancshares is facing a weaker fundamental setup as 2Q26 core EPS of $0.71 missed estimates, driven by lower fee income and higher non-interest expense, while core PPNR/share slipped to $1.00 from $1.03 in the prior quarter. Credit trends improved with NPLs at 126 bps and NPAs at 123 bps, but the benefit was offset by NII pressure from $1.2 million of non-accrual interest reversals, a lower ex-PAA NIM of 3.60%, and purchase-accounting benefits below prior expectations. The company also saw core fee income of $13.4 million below consensus and core operating expenses of $58.4 million above estimates, reinforcing concerns that earnings growth may remain constrained by margin compression, integration risk, and uneven organic loan growth.