Blackstone Group (BX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blackstone has demonstrated robust demand for its private credit solutions, accounting for approximately 50% of its inflows in the third quarter of 2023, which positions the firm favorably given the recent pullback in traditional lending. With a strong investment track record and consistent growth in both fundraising and deployment, the company is well-placed to benefit from potential increases in private wealth fundraising and global economic growth. The firm’s diverse business segments, particularly in real estate and credit, provide a stable foundation for future profitability, reinforcing a positive outlook on Blackstone's financial performance.

Blackstone has reported a disappointing performance, missing financial expectations across multiple metrics, which has led to a downward revision of EPS estimates by 6% for 2023 and 2024, reflecting a prolonged recovery in investment realizations and deployment activity. The company faces significant downside risks, including a potential protracted pullback in financial and capital markets that could impair investment harvesting, reduce realized performance fees, and negatively impact cash earnings. Additionally, a challenging exit and investing environment has resulted in lower returns than historical averages, weaker fundraising, and a projected decline in organic net flows by 10%, all contributing to a negative outlook for Blackstone's stock.