CART Stock Forecast & Price Target

Maplebear is supported by accelerating advertising growth, which rose 16% Y/Y in 1H26 and 2Q while outpacing GTV, creating a path to stronger operating leverage as retail media expands across 300+ Carrot Ads partners and 9K+ active brands. Its enterprise technology platform also appears increasingly strategic, with Storefront Pro on 380+ retailer sites, international expansion through Instaleap into France and Spain, and a broader B2B ecosystem that should deepen switching costs with grocers. The core marketplace remains resilient, with 2Q transaction revenue of $746mm, advertising revenue of $297mm, a 10.1% combined take rate, and demand reinforced by 600,000 shoppers, 2,200 retail partners, and reach to about 98% of households in the United States and Canada.

Maplebear is under pressure from intensifying competition as Amazon and Walmart deepen grocery investments, leveraging logistics scale and adjacent category strength that Instacart cannot easily replicate. Its third-party grocery share has eroded from roughly 70% in 2022 to an estimated 58% in 2025, while AI-driven disintermediation and the possibility of retailers shifting toward first-party fulfillment threaten to weaken its role as the interface. Although advertising revenue is expected to grow 15% to 18% Y/Y for 3Q26 and adjusted EBITDA is projected at $320 million to $340 million, slower margin expansion, concentrated GTV, and cyclical ad risk argue for a more cautious fundamental view.