Chubb (CB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Chubb's overseas general net written premiums (NWP) experienced a positive growth of 6.8% year-over-year, reaching $3.44 billion, indicating resilience in both consumer and commercial segments. In North America, commercial net written premiums rose by 5.1% to $4.90 billion, with property pricing increasing by 6.9% and casualty pricing seeing a notable rise of 12.7%. Furthermore, the North America personal lines NWP also increased by 10% to $1.62 billion, reflecting strong demand in the market despite slightly trailing forecasted growth rates.

Chubb has experienced a significant decline in North America Agriculture net written premiums (NWP), which fell by 47.8% to $317 million, a sharp contrast to the RBC forecast of -22.1%, indicating worsening business performance. The combination of lower growth and margin deterioration is projected to lead to a declining return on equity (ROE) and a subsequent reduction in the company's price-to-book multiple, further straining financial stability. Additionally, a guidance of $1.5 billion in expected losses from California wildfires demonstrates the firm's vulnerability in high-risk areas, prompting a reduction in the 2025 EPS estimate from $24.25 to $21.20.