Chipotle (CMG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Chipotle Mexican Grill reported systemwide sales of $11.3 billion in 2024, indicating strong financial performance and a significant market presence, primarily within the United States. The company is expected to achieve margin expansion in the latter half of 2025 as operational efficiencies improve and cost pressures ease, while ongoing pricing power and menu innovations may bolster transaction growth. Furthermore, Chipotle's robust growth potential in North America, alongside a strategic focus on enhancing its delivery and digital capabilities, positions it favorably for sustained revenue outperformance against broader restaurant industry trends.

Chipotle Mexican Grill is experiencing a negative outlook due to anticipated declines in same-store sales growth, with estimates for Q1 and Q2 significantly lowered to 2.5% and 2.0%, respectively, compared to prior expectations of 5.5% and 5.2%. The adverse impacts of consumer spending deterioration and the ongoing challenges with avocado prices add to the concerns about sales performance, particularly with shifts in timing from the previous year, such as the absence of an extra sales day in FY25. Additionally, the company opened 293 new restaurants in FY24, which fell short of growth targets, further highlighting a potential slowing in expansion momentum amidst a backdrop of rising pressures on overall restaurant spending.