DAWN Stock Forecast & Price Target

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc. demonstrated robust financial performance, with total revenue reaching $131.2 million for the year, driven by $57.2 million in net product sales from its drug Ojemda. This growth trajectory is further supported by increasing prescription volumes, growing prescriber confidence, and strategic improvements in gross-to-net revenue, positioning Ojemda as a standard of care for second-line therapy in pediatric patients with genetically defined cancers. Management expects continued gains in new patient additions, correlating with enhanced prescriber engagement, which is anticipated to bolster overall treatment duration and market presence in the coming years.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc. faces a negative outlook due to a significant reduction in the Medicaid and 340B rebate percentage for its pediatric-only therapy, OJEMDA, leading to a downward revision of its estimated gross-to-net impact from 15–18% to 12–15%. Furthermore, the clinical development of DAY101 and pimasertib is fraught with uncertainty, as potential efficacy concerns and safety signals could jeopardize their advancement, while competition from existing and future therapies may hinder market adoption. Financially, the company reported substantial net losses of $65.7 million in 4Q24 and $188.9 million for the full fiscal year, exacerbated by considerable non-cash stock-based compensation expenses.