NOW (DNOW) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Dnow is benefiting from stronger sales and EBITDA momentum, with CY2Q sales of $1,307M beating consensus by 3% and adj. EPS of $0.12 topping expectations as ERP-related revenue recovery improves. The MRC acquisition more than doubled annual sales and broadened exposure to gas utilities, downstream, and industrial markets, while roughly $70M of expected three-year synergy savings and a 4.5% adj. EBITDA margin outlook support expanding profitability. Balance-sheet strength and declining leverage, including 1.7x net debt leverage in 2Q26 and active buybacks of $75M YTD, add flexibility for accretive capital deployment as demand trends and cash generation continue to improve.

Dnow is weighed down by the U.S. MRC acquisition’s ERP implementation, which caused roughly $170M of 3Q25 sales miss and an estimated $100M-$150M of lost sales in 3Q25, with another $50M-$100M headwind persisting in 4Q25. Even though the acquisition more than doubled annual sales and should bring about ~$70M of synergy savings, the disruption hits about 40% of DNOW’s business and could still produce roughly $400M of lost sales in the first year, making CY26 sales near $5B look conservative rather than robust. The bearish case is reinforced by sensitivity to LNG and crude prices, a possible pullback in datacenter spending, tariff and inflation pass-through risk, and the possibility that CY26 EBITDA could fall near $200M, implying materially weaker fundamentals if operating headwinds persist.