FirstCash Holdings (FCFS) Stock Forecast & Price Target

FirstCash Holdings Inc. reported total revenues of $96 million, demonstrating solid year-over-year growth in both pawn fees and merchandise sales, with gross revenues increasing by 11% when excluding bankruptcies. Furthermore, the company anticipates a 5% to 10% year-over-year increase in gross transaction volumes for lease and loan originations in 2026, driven by impressive loan demand, which increased by 25%. Additionally, favorable trends in the minimum wage in Mexico, with a significant CAGR and projected increases for 2025 and 2026, further support the company's growth outlook.

FirstCash Holdings Inc. has experienced a notable decline in pawn loans, with a median decrease of -9% and an average of -12% each quarter from Q4 to Q1 since 2019, leading to an expected -8% drop in Q1 2026. Furthermore, the gross transaction volume for American First Finance has also been adversely impacted, evidenced by a -13% year-over-year decline linked to the bankruptcies of Conn's and A-Freight, which are anticipated to contribute to a projected revenue drop of 15% to 20% year-over-year in Q4. Overall, the company's net revenue outlook appears flat for the full year, reflecting downward adjustments in growth expectations amidst persistent economic headwinds in its pawn operations and payment solutions segments.