FMC (FMC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

FMC is positioned for robust growth, with an anticipated 14% improvement in EBITDA by 2025, driven by a recovery in volume growth and the expansion of its total addressable market for Rynaxypyr, which is expected to increase by 2.5 times as generic chlorantraniliprole enters the market. The company also expects to benefit from raw material and fixed-cost tailwinds, estimating contributions of $150 million to $200 million, alongside a projected 7% growth in volumes. Furthermore, FMC's shift to a direct sales approach in Brazil presents potential for enhanced sales and higher gross margins, despite the possibility of increased SG&A costs during the transition.

The analysis highlights a negative outlook for FMC's stock primarily due to persistent pressure on EBITDA driven by high cost of goods sold (COGS) associated with low inventory turnover. Additionally, the company has adjusted its sales forecasts downwards by 4% for 4Q and 9% for 2025, indicating significant declines in expected revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, inventory reduction strategies and adverse foreign exchange fluctuations, particularly with the weaker Brazilian Real, further exacerbate the concerns regarding FMC's sales and pricing power going forward.