Freshpet (FRPT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Freshpet demonstrated a notable improvement in financial metrics, with an adjusted gross margin of 48.1% in 4Q24, aligning with its long-term 2027 target. The company reported a 15.5% year-over-year increase in household penetration for the 52-week period ending February 2, 2024, alongside a 6% rise in buying rate, indicating strong consumer demand and brand loyalty. Furthermore, Freshpet's strategic focus on production capacity advancements is expected to support ongoing sales growth, while its dominance in the fresh/frozen category positions the company favorably within the $37 billion dog food market.

Freshpet's financial outlook appears negative due to a notable decline in the dog food category, with volumes decreasing in five out of the eight weekly periods year-to-date in 2025, reflecting heightened market volatility. The company also registered a slowdown in overall pet food sales, which motivated a decision to maintain its 2027 sales goals rather than increase them, signaling a lack of growth confidence. Furthermore, recent trends in scanner data indicate weakening end demand, leading to a lower valuation multiple compared to previous targets, which underscores diminishing sales growth expectations.