FWRG Stock Forecast & Price Target

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. reported an impressive 4Q24 total revenue of $263.3 million, reflecting a 7.6% year-over-year increase, alongside an EBITDA increase to $155.0 million, demonstrating effective cost management and revenue growth strategies. The company's continued investments in targeted marketing and enhanced digital initiatives position it favorably for market share gains, despite a slight decline in same-store sales driven by decreased traffic. Additionally, First Watch anticipates positive low-single-digit percentage growth in same-store sales for FY25, indicating optimism in consumer demand and operational performance moving forward.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. has reported restaurant-level margins of 20.3% for Q4 2024, which, while in line with expectations, reflects a year-over-year decline of approximately 30 basis points, indicating margin pressure. The company's adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 is projected to fall about $4 million short of the previous year's results due to increased commodity costs and labor inflation, along with initial performance challenges from new unit openings. Additionally, a challenging macroeconomic environment poses risks to same-store sales, potentially pushing them towards the lower end of the long-term growth algorithm, further exacerbated by anticipated commodity inflation and reduced labor availability.