Geron (GERN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Geron Corp's positive outlook stems from the recent approval of its drug Rytelo in the European Union, which is expected to expand potential revenue streams starting in 2026. The anticipated additional approval for Rytelo in the first half of 2025, particularly for relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis, could significantly enhance the commercial opportunity and contribute to a strong market presence. Furthermore, management's proactive strategy to increase physician education and patient uptake, supported by promising trial results and favorable prescriber feedback, underscores the company's potential for substantial growth in the oncology segment.

Geron Corp has experienced a slowdown in the momentum of its Rytelo launch in lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes, which has resulted in flat revenue trends over recent months, raising concerns regarding the company's growth trajectory. The reliance on 3L patients for the majority of Rytelo prescriptions, coupled with disappointing uptake among 2L patients, suggests that the initial market response may not meet expectations. Additionally, the projection for peak sales of Rytelo has been revised down to $1.0 billion from a previous estimate of $1.2 billion, highlighting potential risks from competition, safety signals, and regulatory challenges that could impede future revenue growth.