GPK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Graphic Packaging Holding Co is projected to achieve volume/mix growth of 1-2% year-over-year in the second half of the year, with expectations for a 2-3% increase in volumes in 2025, primarily driven by innovation. The company's tuck-in acquisition strategy has facilitated consistent flat to slightly up volume growth, positioning it well to respond to competitive pressures in the U.S. boxboard market. Additionally, Graphic Packaging is expected to mitigate rising commodity input costs through effective pricing strategies, volume/mix improvements, and operational performance enhancements, supporting a positive outlook for its financial metrics.

Graphic Packaging Holding Co. has faced significant challenges, with 3Q24 adjusted EPS of $0.64 falling short of both company estimates and Street expectations, indicating weaker volume and pricing pressures. The company has revised its EBITDA estimates downward for 2H24, FY24, and FY25, reflecting modest growth projections and heightened competitive threats in its core packaging segments. Additional downside risks include declining demand trends in key markets, volatility in input costs, and ongoing issues related to the construction of its new facility, all contributing to a negative outlook for the company.