Hyatt Hotels (H) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hyatt Hotels has demonstrated robust growth in its business segments, particularly with a notable 16% increase in business transient demand in the third quarter, contributing to a 5% growth in systemwide revenue per available room (RevPAR), driven primarily by its luxury brands. The company's ongoing expansion is evident with a hotel pipeline that includes 690 properties and 135,000 rooms, reflecting a quarterly increase in room growth of 3.8%, which positions Hyatt favorably for future revenue generation. Additionally, management's guidance for a 2-4% increase in systemwide RevPAR through 2025, along with a projected net rooms growth of 6-7%, underscores a positive outlook for the company's financial performance and growth potential.

Hyatt Hotels' fourth-quarter EBITDA was 7% below consensus estimates due to underperformance in the Owned & Leased and Distribution segments, which were adversely affected by reduced booking volumes and Hurricane Milton. The company's free cash flow forecast of $450-500 million falls short of expectations and includes significant headwinds from future asset sales and deferred taxes, raising concerns about its financial stability. Furthermore, the downward revisions to 2025-2027 EBITDA projections, along with poor profitability metrics, suggest inefficiencies in converting investments into earnings, indicating a challenging outlook for the stock.