HCA Healthcare (HCA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

HCA Healthcare demonstrated solid financial performance with a more than 6% EBITDA growth in 4Q24, despite the complexities of recent state DPPs and hurricane impacts, highlighting its resilience in challenging environments. The company reported a significant increase in same-store inpatient surgeries, which rose by 180 basis points year-over-year, showcasing broad-based growth across its inpatient services. Furthermore, HCA's strategic positioning in high-demand markets, bolstered by a $400 million year-over-year increase in state supplemental payments, supports a favorable outlook for continued market share gains and enhanced patient access as the largest integrated healthcare delivery system in the United States.

HCA Healthcare's stock outlook is negatively impacted by uncertainty surrounding Medicaid direct payment programs, which adversely affect fourth quarter earnings and overall performance expectations. The company faces headwinds in 2025, including a decline in equivalent admissions growth and ongoing regulatory challenges that have resulted in lowered adjusted EBITDA estimates. Additionally, investor concerns over potential operational gaps stemming from increased Medicaid costs and external disruptions further contribute to a pessimistic financial forecast for the healthcare provider.