Hologic (HOLX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hologic's strong outlook is supported by an anticipated continued growth in its Molecular Diagnostics segment, projected to achieve high-single digit growth due to increased utilization of its Panther system, which has expanded significantly to over 3,300 units globally. The company is expected to maintain an organic revenue growth rate of 4-6%, driven by procedure volume increases, new product launches, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, operational efficiencies and share repurchase programs are likely to contribute to a margin expansion of approximately 30 basis points annually, helping sustain earnings growth above 10%.

Hologic's management has revised its long-term revenue growth target from 5-7% to mid-single digit growth, with expectations for 2025 to fall below this revised range, indicating a potential slowdown in business performance. The company's bear case scenario suggests revenue growth may decelerate to low-single digits, primarily due to anticipated weakness in the Diagnostics and Breast Health segments, which have already shown signs of decline. Additionally, revised organic revenue growth estimates for fiscal year 2025 have been lowered sharply, reflecting concerns that customer purchasing may be delayed in anticipation of new product availability, translating to weaker overall earnings projections.