Henry Schein (HSIC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Henry Schein is viewed positively because its core dental business is reaccelerating, with 1Q:26 U.S. Dental local internal growth of +4.1% y/y versus declines in 2024A and only +1.3% in 2025A, suggesting customers are regaining trust after the 2023 cybersecurity incident. Its scale, leading market share, and sticky software-driven customer relationships support durable demand, while cloud-based users rose +25% y/y in 1Q:26 and the company benefits from a broad, high-quality dental TAM that is resilient and habit-driven. Fundamentals are further strengthened by margin improvement under BOLD+1, including a 1Q:26 adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.6% (+41 bps y/y), about $200M of annual cost savings targeted, and a shift toward higher-margin high-growth businesses that should support earnings growth.

Henry Schein is facing a muted fundamental profile because 2026E growth is still modest, with revenue modeled at $13.7B and only +3.7% y/y growth, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise just +4% to $1,145M, both slightly behind consensus. Demand in its core dental and medical channels appears vulnerable to geopolitical uncertainty, slower consumer confidence, and weaker reimbursement, which could cause patients to delay care and practices to reduce purchases, while the company’s service-heavy model and dependence on third-party suppliers add execution risk. It also remains exposed to competitive pressure from larger distributors and cyber disruptions, and the repeated attacks in October and November 2023 underscore the operational and reputational downside if systems are hit again.