Hershey (HSY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Hershey is supported by a powerful brand portfolio and dominant U.S. confectionery scale, with more than 35% of the domestic chocolate aisle and 100 brands such as Reese’s, Kit Kat, Kisses, and Ice Breakers, while its acquisitions of Amplify, Pirate Brands, Dot’s Pretzels, and LesserEvil broadened the growth runway beyond core candy. Its recent results were strong, with 4Q25 non-GAAP EPS of $2.35 and net sales up 10.6% to $3.1 billion, but the company still faces margin pressure from cocoa and intensifying competition, as candy aisle share fell about 115 bps in dollars and 190 bps in volume in 2Q'26. Even so, the outlook stays constructive because pricing, innovation, capacity expansion, and favorable spring resets can help stabilize share, support +2-4% organic sales growth, and drive the projected +18-20% annual EPS growth in 2026-28.

Hershey is facing a negative fundamental setup as its chocolate share continues to deteriorate, driven by widening price gaps versus Mars, weaker repeat rates on newer launches, and growing leakage to premium, better-for-you, and private label competitors. The pressure is most visible in chocolate candy, where 2Q share fell about 135 bps in dollar terms and 145 bps in volume, while high cocoa costs, inflation, and tariffs have already trimmed gross margin to 40.4%, limiting earnings flexibility. Although management is leaning on innovation and portfolio expansion, the mixed launch record, tough 3Q'26 compares after Reese's Oreo, and the need for higher reinvestment suggest the business may struggle to reaccelerate near term.