Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Howmet Aerospace Inc. demonstrated robust revenue growth of 9% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven primarily by a significant increase in spares, which grew approximately 33% year-over-year. The company's strong performance in defense aerospace structures, evidenced by a 37% sales increase in 4Q25 and a 41% growth for the full fiscal year, highlights its resilience despite broader volume headwinds. Additionally, record levels of capital expenditure and a projected 25% increase in engine spares sales for 2025 bolster the positive outlook for the company's long-term growth trajectory.

Howmet Aerospace Inc is experiencing a notable decline in its Forged Wheels volumes, with a 10% year-over-year decrease in the fourth quarter of FY25 and a total decline of 13% for the entire fiscal year, attributed to economic uncertainty and regulatory challenges in the commercial truck market. Additionally, commercial aerospace structures have also faced declines, specifically a 6% year-over-year drop in 4Q25, due to the company's strategy of exiting lower-margin programs, which could affect short-term revenue and offerings. Despite management identifying potential recovery pathways in the Commercial Transportation sector, the anticipated start-up costs for new manufacturing facilities are expected to lead to ongoing margin pressures, particularly at the Engine Products segment throughout 2026, delaying productivity normalization and operating leverage until 2027.