Kenvue (KVUE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Kenvue, the world's largest pure-play consumer health company by sales, reported annual revenues of $15 billion and has demonstrated strong market share performance, particularly in the Self Care/OTC categories, where it has gained approximately 20 basis points of annual share since 2019. The company’s Self Care segment has achieved an impressive two-year organic sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9%, significantly outpacing the overall category CAGR of 5.1% by around 380 basis points. With favorable category dynamics expected in the near to medium term and continued strong brand power in key segments, Kenvue is positioned to align its growth with market trends in the long term.

Kenvue's organic net sales grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.9% from 2020 to 2022, lagging behind the overall consumer health market's CAGR of 4.8%, indicating declining market share. The Skin Health and Beauty segment, which includes the Neutrogena brand, has faced significant sales declines and distribution challenges, with year-to-date distribution points down by 7.9% and further decreasing by 10.6% in the third quarter. Additionally, the company's gross margins are historically pressured in the fourth quarter due to maintenance costs, compounded by sluggish household penetration and persistent execution issues in North America, raising concerns about future growth and profitability.