LPRO Stock Forecast & Price Target

Open Lending Corp reported third-quarter revenue of $24.2 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3%, which exceeded forecasts by $2.3 million and surpassed consensus estimates by 9%. The company's adjusted EBITDA also showed strong growth, rising 22% year-over-year to $5.6 million, bolstered by a $1.1 million positive adjustment to previously recognized profit-sharing fee revenue. Furthermore, management expressed renewed confidence by issuing full-year guidance for 2026, forecasting a growth of 3% to 13% in certifications, alongside a doubling of its pipeline since the launch, highlighting potential for future growth and profitability.

Open Lending Corp experienced a substantial 13% year-over-year decline in the total number of certified loans, with significant reductions in relationships with captive lenders, which fell 57% year-over-year. This decrease in certified loans, combined with an expected further decline of 10%-18% in the upcoming quarter, reflects ongoing challenges in lending to near-prime borrowers and adverse seasonal trends. Additionally, rising auto loan delinquencies have compelled management to revise profit-sharing fee revenue downward, indicating potential pressure on future profitability.