MongoDB (MDB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

MongoDB's customer base experienced significant growth, adding approximately 1,900 customers sequentially and 14% year-over-year, reaching over 54,500 customers, a notable increase from the previous year. The non-relational database market is projected to expand at a robust 22% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2025, which bodes well for MongoDB's continued relevance and market penetration. Additionally, both Atlas revenue saw a 24% year-over-year increase and non-Atlas revenue outperformed expectations, contributing to improved operating margins and signaling strong financial health for the company.

MongoDB's financial outlook has turned negative primarily due to a significant decline in non-GAAP operating margin, projected to decrease from 15% in FY25 to 9-10% in FY26, with a large portion of this decline resulting from the non-repetition of $50 million in high-margin multiyear license revenues. Additionally, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) expansion rate has shown weakening trends, decreasing sequentially from 120% to 118%, attributed to poorer-quality workload acquisitions and anticipated declining sales from Enterprise Advanced offerings. Furthermore, management has downgraded expectations for total revenue growth to 12-14% year-over-year, substantially below consensus estimates, indicating ongoing revenue pressures exacerbated by increased spending in research and development and marketing efforts.