Mondelez (MDLZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Mondelez International is projected to achieve 3% organic sales growth in FY27, fueled by an over 2% volume contribution despite pricing improvements remaining modest. The company has demonstrated resilience in emerging markets, reflecting an impressive 8% growth in the most recent quarter, while also benefiting from significant pricing actions resulting in over 35% cumulative increases since 2021. Enhanced operational efficiency is expected to become evident, particularly in the second half of 2026, as lower cocoa costs contribute to robust earnings growth, supported by the company's strong balance sheet and market share advantages.

Mondelez International has revised its estimated 2026 earnings per share (EPS) downward to $3.03, reflecting a decline attributed to unfavorable cocoa costs and lower-than-expected price realization, leading to only 1.5% constant currency growth. The company anticipates a 60 basis points contraction in gross margins for FY26, primarily due to significant EBIT margin declines in Europe and North America, exacerbated by volume/mix shrinkage and the phasing of cocoa inventory costs. Furthermore, a marked decline in volume of approximately 7.5% in the first quarter and overall organic sales growth projected at just over 0.5% presents additional challenges amid a backdrop of rising interest expenses and persistent cocoa price pressures.