Methanex (MEOH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Methanex Corp experienced a significant increase in production during the fourth quarter of 2024, with output rising to 839,000 MT from 605,000 MT in the previous quarter, largely attributed to the successful ramp-up of its Geismar 3 plant. The company is anticipated to benefit from higher near-term pricing, with forecasts projecting an average selling price (ASP) of $395 to $400 per metric ton for the first quarter, bolstered by an improved regional sales mix following its acquisition of OCI's methanol assets. Additionally, the return to service of the Natgasoline plant and stabilized gas balances suggest a robust operational environment, enhancing confidence in Methanex's mid-term financial performance.

The financial outlook for Methanex Corp is negatively influenced by multiple factors, including a projected drop in production capacity from 8.0 million to 7.5 million metric tons due to a more stringent turnaround schedule and lower expectations in New Zealand. Additionally, the company's revenue generation is at risk, as geopolitical tensions and energy shortages in Iran have led to a decrease in methanol production, impacting export levels and market stability. Furthermore, despite high global methanol prices, a year-over-year decline in sales volume by 15% indicates underlying weaknesses in demand, compounded by economic challenges such as inflation and currency devaluation in key markets.