Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Meritage Homes Corp is recognized as a leading builder of single-family homes in the U.S., operating across three regions and ten states, and is poised for growth due to strategic land investments and an increasing planned community count. Following its third-quarter earnings report, analysts revised forward earnings per share (EPS) estimates upward by 3-4%, reflecting an optimistic outlook based on anticipated delivery increases despite slight reductions in gross margins. Furthermore, the forecast for 2025-2026 indicates a delivery growth rate of 5-7%, contributing to expectations of continued profitability in the face of a sideways housing market.

Meritage Homes Corp has adjusted its forward EPS estimates down by 5%, primarily due to anticipated reductions in home deliveries, gross margins, and increasing selling, general, and administrative expenses. Despite being recognized as a top homebuilder in the U.S., the company faces significant challenges in the homebuilding market, characterized by high interest rates, elevated home prices, and diminished affordability, which are likely to affect housing demand and profit margins. Furthermore, the potential for economic downturns, falling home prices, and rising mortgage rates adds layers of risk, making the outlook for Meritage Homes increasingly uncertain.