Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. has shown promising growth potential, particularly with the identification of an increasing patient base for Classic Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH), which has grown by 3,000 patients since 2018, now approximating 8,000 confirmed diagnoses in the U.S. The company is expected to benefit from strong ongoing sales and compliance for its flagship product INGREZZA, as the majority of the estimated 800,000 tardive dyskinesia (TD) patients remain untreated, indicating significant room for market expansion. Furthermore, management's confidence in the long-term blockbuster potential of their new product Crenessity, along with upcoming pivotal programs and clinical trials, is likely to serve as a catalyst for sustained future growth.

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. has revised its fiscal year 2025 sales guidance for its flagship product, Ingrezza, to $2.5-$2.6 billion, which is significantly lower than the previous consensus estimate of approximately $2.7 billion, reflecting slower growth and increasing competitive pressures. This forecast adjustment corresponds with a reduced total revenue projection for year-end 2025, decreasing from $2,846 million to $2,648 million, primarily due to evolving payer dynamics and stricter utilization management. Additionally, the company's 4Q24 Ingrezza sales of approximately $615 million fell short of both consensus estimates and the company's prior projections, indicating ongoing challenges in market performance and growth.