NXST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Nexstar Media Group, the largest television station owner-operator in the United States, reported a significant year-over-year EBITDA increase of 40%, reaching $628 million, positively influenced by political spending and stable retransmission revenues. The company's forecast for 2026 suggests accelerating distribution revenue growth, particularly following the renewal of carriage agreements with 60% of its base in late 2025, which could bolster revenue streams. Additionally, management highlighted the positive impact of returning sports broadcasts on audience growth, as well as an overall improvement in ad revenue, indicating a robust outlook for the network in conjunction with the expected benefit from continued political ad expenditure.

Nexstar Media Group faces a challenging outlook as net retransmission revenues are projected to remain flat in 2025, compounded by an anticipated decrease in distribution revenue due to fewer retransmission renewals in 2024. The advertising environment remains volatile, with non-political ad revenues experiencing a year-over-year decline of approximately 9.2%, which could adversely impact overall revenue growth. Additionally, while profits were temporarily bolstered by retransmission and political advertising, the fourth quarter earnings per share fell short of expectations, largely due to an impairment charge and an elevated tax rate, signaling potential financial strain ahead.