Oshkosh (OSK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oshkosh Corporation reported access sales of $1.157 billion for the quarter, which marked a slight increase of 0.6% year-over-year, indicating steady demand in this key segment. The company's vocational backlog is robust at $6.318 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year growth, which signals strong future revenue potential as production rates increase. Additionally, with expected growth in defense sales and improved margins due to the ramping of the Next Generation Defense Vehicle (NGDV) production, Oshkosh is positioned for significant revenue expansion through 2025 and beyond, bolstered by a forecasted 6% revenue growth and a 20.6% incremental margin.

Oshkosh Corporation's adjusted operating margin has declined to 9.4%, reflecting a 30 basis point drop from the previous year, while revenue is anticipated to experience significant decreases, particularly in the first and fourth quarters due to seasonal factors and market softness. The access equipment segment, which has been noted as the most cyclically sensitive, faces incremental downside risks in 2025, as rental companies cut capital expenditures, leading to reduced orders and increased cancellations amid heightened competitive pressures and potential trade tensions. Additionally, the defense segment has reported a sharp decline in adjusted operating margin to 2.7%, attributed to unfavorable legacy fixed-price contracts, further compounding the financial challenges facing the organization.