Oatly (OTLY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Oatly Group AB has demonstrated significant financial improvement, with gross margin surpassing consensus expectations by 190 basis points and expanding approximately 1,000 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to supply chain efficiencies and a favorable product mix. The company's projections for 2024 indicate an organic net sales growth revision to a range of 6–10%, reflecting confidence from positive volume trends across its segments and effective marketing investments. Additionally, as Oatly increases its owned and hybrid production capabilities, the potential for enhanced profitability and a pathway to achieving positive net profit becomes increasingly viable.

Oatly Group AB has lowered its fiscal year 2024 organic sales growth estimate to 7.5%, down from 9.2%, alongside a significant adjustment in its adjusted EBITDA projection to -$51.5 million, reflecting operational challenges and underperformance in the Americas segment, particularly due to share losses in key accounts like Starbucks. The company has expressed concerns regarding a potential slowdown in demand for oat-based products, which, coupled with delays in achieving profitability, raises red flags about its operational effectiveness and market positioning. Additionally, while capital expenditures in 2024 are expected to decline to below $75 million, this might not sufficiently address underlying liquidity issues or offset the decline in brand visibility and market share.