Planet Fitness (PLNT) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Planet Fitness Inc reported significant membership growth, ending 2024 with 19.7 million members, an increase of 1.0 million year-over-year, which indicates strong consumer demand and brand expansion. The company achieved revenue growth of 10.3%, exceeding its guidance, alongside a 12% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA and net income, underscoring operational efficiency and profitability. Increased Black Card penetration to 64% and steady pricing strategies have positively impacted revenue generation, suggesting a robust financial outlook driven by both existing and new member engagement.

The analysis reveals a negative outlook for Planet Fitness Inc., primarily driven by an anticipated dip in free cash flow (FCF) in 2025 due to rising capital expenditures and lower franchise earnings, despite net leverage expectations to remain below 3x. Disappointment in the initial 2025 outlook, which reflects only 10% total sales and EBITDA growth with constant margins, contrasts sharply with buy-side expectations, contributing to a recent sell-off and significant stock underperformance compared to the S&P 500. Additionally, unfavorable weather conditions, a challenging macroeconomic environment, and inadequate membership growth have raised concerns over management's guidance and overall franchisee economics, potentially disrupting future expansion and profitability.