Philip Morris (PM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Philip Morris International (PMI) demonstrated robust growth potential through significant increases in ZYN shipment volumes, which rose 42% year-over-year and 10% sequentially, indicating strong consumer demand and a favorable product mix. The company's projected earnings per share for 2025 has been raised to $7.12, reflecting an estimated constant currency growth rate exceeding 11.5%, bolstered by an anticipated organic sales growth of 6% to 8%, primarily from smoke-free products, which are expected to grow between 12% and 14%. Additionally, PMI's acquisition of Swedish Match enhances its position in the U.S. market, facilitating future growth opportunities for its iQOS product and reinforcing its commitment to expanding its smoke-free product portfolio.

Philip Morris International is facing significant headwinds that may adversely impact its financial performance, particularly due to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts expected to reduce earnings per share (EPS) by $0.21, equating to a 3% decline for the year. Additionally, the company anticipates substantial revenue loss attributed to flavor bans, with a projected 2 billion stick decrease in 2024 and a further 1 billion in 2025, primarily affecting the first quarter. Other challenges include increased expenses for launching the IQOS product, softening sales volumes, adverse economic conditions leading to consumer trading down, and regulatory pressures that may hinder the adoption of its reduced-risk products.