Pool (POOL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

The positive outlook on Pool Corp’s stock is underpinned by a robust growth trajectory linked to the increasing installed base of in-ground pools in the U.S., which has consistently risen over the past fifty years, alongside an anticipated uptick in remodeling and retrofitting activities. The company is well-positioned in the wholesale distribution sector, capitalizing on favorable trends such as migration to warmer climates and heightened investments in backyard living features and advanced pool technologies. Furthermore, while 2024 may represent a trough in earnings per share, the expected rebound and the historical valuation metrics support a favorable long-term earnings growth outlook for the company.

Pool Corp has revised its adjusted EPS guidance for 2024 downward to a range of $11.04–$11.44, representing a year-over-year decrease of 17% to 14%, due to weaker than expected new pool construction and remodeling activity. The company has reported a year-to-date revenue decline of 6.5% and anticipates similar revenue contraction in 2024, correlating with a significant drop in new pool permits in key markets such as Florida and Texas, which have seen declines of approximately 7.1% year-to-date. Furthermore, the expectation of continued weakness in discretionary product sales alongside an overall decline in net sales and EBIT margins further underpins a negative outlook for the stock’s performance.