REAX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Real Brokerage Inc. has demonstrated significant operational efficiency and scalability, highlighted by a sequential gross margin increase to 583 basis points and record 4Q revenue of $350.6 million, reflecting robust growth in its core brokerage operations. The company's agent count has surged by 77% year-over-year, alongside a remarkable 90% year-over-year growth in transaction volume, which suggests a strong market position and increased adoption of its technology-powered services. The anticipation of mortgage and title services nearing profitability, coupled with the high gross margins of the Real Wallet product at approximately 90%, indicates a promising trajectory for margin expansion and sustained revenue growth in the near future.

The Real Brokerage Inc. is expected to experience a marginal decline in revenue due to anticipated lower transaction volumes across the industry, exacerbated by factors like poor weather and seasonality, which historically lead to reduced listing activity. Revenue projections have been revised down from $1.71 billion to $1.62 billion, with negative EBITDA expected at ($15.7 million), representing a deteriorating financial outlook. Additionally, the adjustment of the post-cap restricted share unit bonus for agents participating in the Agent Stock Purchase Plan, decreasing from 20% to 15% effective in April, may further impact agent motivation and operational performance.