Riskified Ltd (RSKD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Riskified Ltd has demonstrated positive financial momentum, with a significant 9.7% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter, totaling $78.8 million, surpassing consensus estimates by 5%. The company's growth is propelled by diversification efforts, as products outside its core Chargeback Guarantee now contribute to 10% of total new bookings, complemented by a robust 90% year-over-year revenue increase in this segment. Additionally, regional growth is promising, with the U.S. seeing a 14% revenue increase and APAC growing at an impressive 25%, indicating solid sales momentum and a commitment to efficiency that has led to a substantial expansion in EBITDA margins over the past two years.

Riskified Ltd's financial performance indicates several underlying issues contributing to a negative outlook for its stock. The company experienced a decline in adjusted EBITDA margins, from 3% to 1%, and is facing a substantial growth headwind due to the non-renewal of a major customer, projected to negatively impact revenue by approximately $5 million in the fourth quarter and $18 million in 2025. Additionally, broader challenges in its key merchant verticals are evident, as underlying transaction volumes are reported to be declining year-over-year, further exacerbating the company's revenue growth concerns.