Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Starbucks is supported by an early-stage North America revitalization that is already producing stronger same-store sales, with F2Q26 global comps up 6.2% and U.S. comps up 7.1%, driven by faster transactions, better ticket mix, and broad-based demand across dayparts. Its outlook is further reinforced by Green Apron operating improvements, menu innovation, a revamped Starbucks Rewards program with 35.6M active members, and brand marketing that is lifting traffic while keeping price increases restrained. Margin and EPS upside should follow as coffee inflation eases, about $2B of cost savings and $800M+ cumulative savings by 2027-end flow through, and consolidated EBIT margins expand toward 15.1% in F2028 with EPS rising to $3.94.

Starbucks is viewed negatively because its earnings power remains highly exposed to a softening U.S. consumer backdrop, with North America representing more than 90% of North America segment revenue and roughly 70% of consolidated global revenue. The outlook is also pressured by a highly competitive, low-barrier-to-entry beverage market, persistent real estate and labor constraints, and volatile input costs, including coffee at 10-15% of COGS and dairy below 10%. Even with 2Q cost items roughly in line, 2026-28E store opex is still modeled at 57.3%, 55.7%, and 54.6% of sales, leaving margins elevated versus the ~51% 2021-24 historical average and making 2026 EPS especially sensitive to traffic and execution.