SERV Stock Forecast & Price Target

Serve Robotics Inc. is poised for significant growth, with an increase in the 12-month revenue projection reflecting greater visibility into a multi-year forecast, specifically targeting over $150 million in revenue by FY27. The company’s focus on enhancing autonomy and operational efficiency suggests that the growth in costs will be outpaced by revenue, positioning it for improved margins as it scales. With the expanding total addressable market exceeding $20 billion globally and robust projected growth in the drone delivery sector at a 37% CAGR through 2032, there is a strong impetus for investor interest and positive financial performance.

Serve Robotics Inc. faces substantial financial challenges, reflected in an estimated EBITDA loss of $19.1 million in FY25, followed by marginal improvements leading to a positive EBITDA of $684k in FY26 and $6.9 million in FY27. Significant hurdles to operational efficiency, such as a 12-month period for robots to reach full productivity, regulatory obstacles in new city launches, and increased competition, contribute to concerns over the company's growth potential. Additionally, anticipated declines in delivery pricing and ongoing labor shortages may further strain the company's profitability in a last-mile delivery sector that has not yet achieved cost efficiency despite technological advancements.