Sweetgreen (SG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Sweetgreen Inc. is positioned for continued strong top-line growth, contributing to its path toward profitability through improved scale and better leverage of fixed costs, which is expected to enhance margins over time. The company is anticipated to increase its restaurant margins from 17.5% in 2023, potentially surpassing previous peak levels of 19% achieved in 2014, fueled primarily by enhanced average unit volume (AUV) growth. Additionally, Sweetgreen’s strategic focus on menu innovation and expansion into new customer segments is likely to drive comp growth that outpaces the industry, supporting the case for higher restaurant margins and accelerated unit growth in the years ahead.

Sweetgreen Inc. has faced disappointing performance indicators, as evidenced by fourth-quarter same-store sales (SSS) falling 190 basis points below expectations and guidance for 2025 being set 210 basis points below consensus. The company's first-quarter projections have been adjusted to reflect a SSS decline of -4%, driven by challenges such as adverse weather conditions and the impact of holiday timing, which are likely to hinder overall revenue growth. Additionally, lowered EBITDA estimates for 2025 and 2026—down to $64.0 million from previous forecasts—highlight the potential challenges facing core markets and overall restaurant margin expectations, indicating significant concerns about the company's financial outlook.