Silence Therapeutics (SLN) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Silence Therapeutics is attractive because its lead PV asset, divesiran, has a strong biological rationale through TMPRSS6 knockdown, and Phase 1 data showed 100% response in well-controlled PV patients with a median 287 days to first phlebotomy in follow-up data. The thesis is strengthened by rusfertide’s clinical validation of the hepcidin pathway, while divesiran may offer a meaningful convenience edge with Q6W or Q12W dosing versus weekly injections, which KOLs suggest could drive adoption even with similar or slightly lower efficacy. At a $300M market cap, the stock appears to underwrite less than a 75% probability of success despite supportive safety, biomarker, symptom, and phlebotomy-reduction signals, leaving room for upside if the randomized Phase 2 readout confirms durable hematocrit control.

Silence Therapeutics is viewed negatively because its investment case rests on a still-unproven PV franchise, where divesiran must clear a key August Phase 2 readout against a highly competitive backdrop and a low 20% probability of success in the model. While Phase 1 showed promising hematocrit and phlebotomy reductions in 21 patients, the program still faces meaningful safety, efficacy, and execution risks, and the company remains early-to-mid stage with an ongoing need to raise $200M-$350M annually from 2026E to 2031E, which could dilute shareholders. The thesis is further weakened by reliance on a less-core zerlasiran asset and a modest present value despite forecast peak unadjusted US PV revenues of about $770M and risk-adjusted peak revenues of about $575M at a 75% PoS.