Teck Resources (TECK) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Teck Resources has reported better-than-expected Q4 2024 operating results, driven significantly by a record performance at the Quebrada Blanca 2 (QB2) mine, and has revised its total copper output guidance for 2025 to 490-565kt, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase. The company’s strong balance sheet positions it well to internally fund its pipeline of copper projects, further enhancing its appeal as an investment in energy transition metals. Furthermore, the 2025 gross capital expenditure budget of $2.0-$2.3 billion aligns closely with forecasts, indicating effective financial management as Teck focuses on ramping up copper production and transitioning away from coal and oil sands businesses.

Teck Resources has provided a three-year financial guidance that fell slightly below expectations, particularly regarding increased costs and lower output forecasts, leading to a revised EBITDA estimate reduction of approximately 4% per annum for 2025 to 2027. The updated zinc production guidance reflects a significant decline of 11% year-over-year, which is 7% below prior forecasts, raising concerns about production capacity and operational efficiency. Additionally, while the copper cash cost guidance has increased, this rise in costs raises concerns about the company’s financial resilience amidst sustained low metal prices, further impacting its ability to secure capital.