TripAdvisor (TRIP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tripadvisor's 4Q'24 results reflect a solid performance with total revenues reaching $411 million, representing a 5% year-over-year increase and exceeding consensus estimates by 2.5%. The Viator experiences segment demonstrated robust growth, with gross booking value (GBV) increasing approximately 17% to around $840 million and revenue growth accelerating to 16%, driven by a 20% increase in units and volume. Furthermore, the company's focus on leveraging its mobile app for bookings, which saw an 80% year-over-year increase, highlights the potential for continued revenue growth, particularly in the experiences segment moving forward.

Tripadvisor's financial outlook indicates a challenging environment, with expectations for consolidated revenue to remain flat or experience low single-digit declines in the first quarter of 2025. The Brand Tripadvisor segment faces significant pressure, with projected EBITDA margins declining by approximately 1,000 basis points due to decreased revenue, which is expected to decline in the low double digits year-over-year. Additionally, the currency headwinds and holiday timing effects are projected to further impact revenue growth, particularly for TheFork, which anticipates low-teens growth tempered by approximately six percentage points from external factors.