Tractor Supply (TSCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Tractor Supply is forecasting total sales growth of 5%-7% for 2025, driven by improved big-ticket trends and sustained market share gains. The company anticipates a gross margin expansion of 20-40 basis points year-over-year, supported by enhanced supply chain efficiencies and growth in private brands and retail media. In light of an improving end market backdrop and successful strategic initiatives, Tractor Supply expects to achieve 3-5% comparable sales gains alongside high-single-digit EBITDA growth.

Tractor Supply demonstrated a decline in its EBIT margin, falling by approximately 70 basis points year-over-year to 8.4%, alongside an EPS of $0.44, which fell short of expectations due to cyclical headwinds. The company's gross margins decreased by 10 basis points to 35.2%, primarily because of investments in growth initiatives and operational costs, counteracting anticipated improvements from previously favorable transportation costs and product pricing. Additionally, the SG&A expense ratio increased by 60 basis points to 26.8% due to strategic investments and a decrease in comparable sales, which, along with external factors such as unusually warm weather affecting seasonal sales, raises concerns about Tractor Supply's financial outlook.