Utz Brands (UTZ) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Utz Brands, Inc. has demonstrated strong momentum in retail sales, achieving a 5.9% growth that surpasses the broader Salty Snack category, primarily due to effective distribution gains. The company anticipates an increase in volume-driven organic growth in 2025, supported by additional capacity from its Kings Mountain facility, which will bolster its kettle snack business. Furthermore, the UTZ portfolio has seen positive metrics including a 120 basis point increase in household penetration year-over-year and expectations for EBITDA growth of 6-10% and EPS growth of 10-15%, indicating a robust operational outlook and expansion potential.

Utz Brands, Inc. is currently facing significant challenges within the salty snacks category, leading to a flat organic net sales growth reported for Q4, which aligned with internal estimates but was below consensus expectations of +2.1%. Management's acknowledgment of subdued category trends, driven by consumer value-seeking behavior amid inflationary pressures, has resulted in a lowered estimate for organic sales growth in Q4 2024 to 0.0%. The overall outlook suggests continued top-line pressure as the sluggishness in the snacks category, compounded by macroeconomic factors, is anticipated to persist in the near term.