
Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Forecast & Price Target
Vale S.A. (VALE) Analyst Ratings
Bulls say
Vale has demonstrated a solid performance in Q4 2023, with EBITDA surpassing expectations by 2% and 4% compared to RBCe and consensus estimates, respectively. The company's strategic focus on adapting its business toward steel decarbonization positions it for sustained growth, particularly in its Iron Solutions division, alongside continued enhancements in the Base Metals segment. Furthermore, Vale's production guidance indicates significant growth potential, projecting output to increase from 321 Mt in 2023 to a range of 340 to 360 Mt by 2026, bolstered by a notable 23% increase in steel exports from China year-to-date.
Bears say
Vale's stock outlook remains negative due to a significant decline in its P/NAV multiple, which fell from 0.63x to 0.53x following the Brumadinho disaster, indicating a reduced valuation for the company's net asset value. Additionally, global steel demand is projected to decrease by 2.4% to 1,751 Mt in 2024, further exacerbated by a 3.6% year-over-year decline in crude steel production in China during the first nine months of 2024. Despite stronger performance in nickel and copper sales, the overall weakness in the iron ore segment, coupled with a 5% decline in benchmark iron ore prices, suggests ongoing challenges for Vale's core business operations.
This aggregate rating is based on analysts' research of Vale S.A. and is not a guaranteed prediction by Public.com or investment advice.
Vale S.A. (VALE) Analyst Forecast & Price Prediction
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